Mathematics Market Indicators

Unemployment

Young mathematicians have been facing dismal job prospects throughout the nineties. Spring unemployment rates for new Ph.D.s have fallen for the first time since 1990 to 9.4% in 1996. These unemployment figures tell only part of the story. 2.5% of the new Ph.D.s, after spending 5-7 years working on their degree, were not seeking employment at all. Of the Ph.D.s who had found employment in the spring of 1996, 3.2% were employed only part-time, and 6.9% were employed at the same institution that granted their degree. All in all, as of May 1996, one in five new Ph.D.s was either under- or unemployed.

Spring unemployment rates for new math Ph.D.s, AMS-IMS-MAA Annual Survey, First Report

The 5% reduction in unemployment between 1995 and 1996 is not due to improvement in the academic job market. In fact, the number of new Ph.D.s employed by U.S. academic institutions decreased by 6% from 1995 levels. The explanation is that the supply of Ph.D.s decreased. While there were 64 fewer Ph.D.s still seeking employment in the spring of 1996 than in 1995, it should be noted that there were 73 fewer Ph.D.s granted in 1996.

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Wage Deflation

175 years ago economist David Ricardo observed, "labor is dear when it is scarce and cheap when it is plentiful." Not surprisingly, an 8% decline in real 9 month teaching and research salaries for new Ph.D.s has accompanied the increase in Ph.D. supply between 1989 and 1996.

Real 9-month teaching and research salaries for new math Ph.D.s, AMS-IMS-MAA Annual Survey, First Report

Moreover, a more subtle change is occurring. The type of employment of new Ph.D.s is changing. New Ph.D.s in academia are increasingly employed as temporary rather than tenure-track employees. The number of full-time non-tenure-eligible doctoral faculty members has increased by 29% between 1991 and 1995, and these employees now comprise some 44% of all non-tenured faculty members. In addition to having no job security, these temporary workers receive fewer benefits than tenure-track employees. Hence there is a hidden downward trend in total compensation for new Ph.D.s. Furthermore, temporary employment delays entry onto the tenure-track salary ladder. Each year on postdoc wages delays the transition to assistant professor salary levels by one year, and results in one less year as a full professor. Thus, total lifetime earnings are depressed.

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Declining Enrollments

The opportunity costs of graduate school have become increasingly difficult for prospective students to justify as the prospects and compensation for Ph.D.s erode and the time to degree increases. The median salary this year for new math Ph.D.s in 9 month teaching and research positions, the most common type of academic position held by new Ph.D.s, is $36,000. This is considerably less than the $37,500 to $41,400 starting salaries commanded by 1996 bachelors degree recipients in electrical, computer, or chemical engineering. The mere $6,000 difference in starting salary over that for mathematics bachelor’s degree holders does not make a strong economic case for 8 years of intensive postbaccalaureate training.

The declining fortunes of PhDs are taking their toll on graduate enrollments. A recent AMS study reports that applications to graduate programs in mathematics fell by 30% between the fall of 1994 and the fall of 1996. Moreover, the number of first year full-time graduate students in traditional math departments (Group I, II, and III schools) declined by roughly 15% between 1991 and 1996.

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Last modified: Sun Oct 13 21:56:34 1996